Poverty and Violence: Evidence from the Little Ice Age in China

Melanie Meng Xue, New York University Abu Dhabi

During the peak of the Little Ice Age (1636-1644), extreme weather led to extreme poverty in China. Under persistent drought, incidences of conflict and cannibalism went rampant. To estimate the long-run impact of extreme poverty, I construct a continuous treatment in exposure to extreme poverty: years under extreme drought between 1636 and 1644. First, I establish a relationship between years under extreme weather and violent incidents at the time. Second, I perform a text analysis of a variety of historical texts to extract post-1644 indicators of violence, after most places had returned to their pre-1636 steady-states. Finally, I examine modern-day social media data. I document a relationship between years spent under extreme drought between 1636 and 1644, and a higher propensity for expressing violent attitudes on social media. These results indicate that extreme poverty can lead to a change in attitudes towards violence, and that through which it can increase violent behavior in the very long run. Throughout I account for pre-existing, pro-violence social and cultural characteristics.

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 Presented in Session 151. Persistent Effects of Inequality and Deprivation