Why Is Tunisia the Sole Success of the Arab Spring Uprisings? The Role of the Capital in Revolutions

Ahmad Al-Sholi, Stony Brook University

Arab authoritarianism exceptionality ceased to exist in 2011 when massive popular mobilizations broke out in many countries across the region calling for the fall of the regime – the captivating chant in most demonstrations. Some scholars were inspired to coin a particular term, the Arab Spring, while others argued that we are witnessing a fourth-wave of democratization. Positive sentiments, however, were soon eclipsed by civil wars, foreign military interventions, and counterrevolutions. Being the only country that is still consolidating a transition to democracy, Tunisia is a stark exception to this commonality. However, a broad analysis of the different political outcomes in the region is largely missing. I argue that Tunisia’s industrial relations were more conducive to a transition to democracy than anywhere else in the region. Its business class abandoned their state elites under popular pressure due to their profit structures in general, and more specifically, the tight profit margins that limited the range of concessions at the workplace, making that same capital support calls for political reform in pursuit of a restoration to steady business operations. This finding is based on archival newspaper research and fieldwork conducted in Tunisia in 2019 where I interviewed 35 capitalists, unionists, and activists. Tunisian trade unions extract political outcomes primarily by commanding concessions from the capitalist class due to historically hard-won industrial arrangements, not the ability to command the largest protest. Alternatively, higher profit margins, allow capitalists and state elites to reach a dual concession that adheres to both of their interests. I show this dual concession in this paper as a counterfactual based on similar research focusing on Jordan and Morocco.

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 Presented in Session 180. Assessing Revolutionary Situations and Outcomes