Wealth, Wealth Shocks and Marital Fertility at the Onset of the Demographic Transition: Evidence from Three Panels of American Couples, 1850-1880

J. David Hacker, University of Minnesota
Martin Dribe, Lund University
Jonas Helgertz, University of Minnesota/Lund University

The role of income and wealth in the historical fertility transition is poorly understood. Prior studies have suggested that income and wealth may have been positively correlated with completed net fertility prior to fertility transition (“survival of the richest”), while the association with marital fertility is uncertain. After the transition, the correlation was strongly negative, both for total and marital fertility, and it is well-known that higher social status groups led the transition. The shift from a positive to a negative correlation between income/wealth and fertility is therefore central to understanding the onset of fertility decline. Unfortunately, income and wealth data are rarely available in sources documenting the fertility transition, forcing most researchers to rely on occupations as proxies. Although occupational income scores have proven useful in the study of fertility decline (e.g., Jones and Tertilt 2008), income and wealth likely varied significantly within occupations, even after controlling for age, location and other characteristics, and this heterogeneity may mask significant effects and bias results. In this paper we examine the relationships between wealth, wealth shocks and marital fertility in the United States using direct measures of wealth and fertility in three panels of couples in the United States linked between the 1850-1860, 1860-1870, and 1870-1880 censuses. This period was characterized by wide differentials in the timing and pace of the marital fertility transition by region, nativity, and occupation and is therefore an excellent setting for testing hypotheses. We examine whether the wealth-fertility relationship varied among regions experiencing significant fertility decline and natural fertility patterns, among couples in different sectors of the economy with different costs and returns of children, and by race and nativity. We also examine whether the economic shock of emancipation on slave-owning families impacted their subsequent fertility.

No extended abstract or paper available

 Presented in Session 152. The Demographic Effects of Shocks, Stress and Economic Development