The Geography of Social Change

Stefania Marcassa, Cergy Paris Université
Alessandra Fogli, Minneapolis FRB

The US fertility transition is a puzzle in terms of both magnitude and timing. We show that fertility declined faster in counties characterized by a higher outward migration, especially towards the Western frontier. Improved economic opportunities in the West, as higher wages and land availability, provided incentives to migrate. Results are robusts to several measures of fertility and internal migration. Our theory is based on the diffusion of new family values governing intergenerational responsibilities and behavior with respect to saving and fertility. Migration and the lack of remittance technology lowered expected transfers from children, and incentivized precautionary savings of parents.

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 Presented in Session 247. Land Prices in the Antebellum Mississippi and Missouri Valleys